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Republicans have only one way to defeat Trump
Super Tuesday is over and Donald Trump’s lead in the Republican primary is increasing. The party’s worst nightmares are more real than ever now, as a Trump nomination looks more likely to happen with every passing contest.
Everyone in the Republican party knows (or should know) that a Trump nomination means an easy victory for Hillary Clinton in the general elections and could also spell trouble for all GOP senators and congressmen facing reelection. It would be a very serious blow to the party and an unprecedented gift for the Democrats.
While the media continues to hype Trump and to present his nomination as an almost accomplished fact, the numbers tell us a different story. The nomination contest still has a long way to go and Trump could easily be defeated if the Republican party would come to its senses and work together as a team. But the longer the party remains divided, the better for Trump and the Democrats.
The way things stand right now
Right now, the situation looks very rosy for the real estate mogul, if we are to believe the odds from Predictwise. This is a website where people can buy virtual “shares” to bet on a candidate’s success. The higher the odds a candidate has to win the nomination, the more expensive the shares and the lower the payout if he actually wins. This means that the odds that can be seen on this political marketplace are backed by real people who are willing to put their money at stake. It is some sort of political betting exchange that reflects the “market sentiment” on the elections. Right now, the odds look as follows:
|Potential Candidate||PredictWise||Derived Market Price|
|Donald Trump||81 %||$0.755|
|Marco Rubio||12 %||$0.125|
|Ted Cruz||5 %||$0.058|
|John Kasich||2 %||$0.024|
Trump’s market price of $0.755 means that a Trump share can be bought at $0.755. If he wins the nomination, each share will be redeemed for $1 which means a profit of $0.245 for risking $0.755 (a return of only 32%).
As a comparison, a share for Marco Rubio which is considered to have the second chance costs only $0.125. In this case, the profit would be $0.875 for a risk of only $0.125 (a return of 700%).
This is how low his chances for the nomination are predicted to be. The odds are even lower for Curz and Kasich.
Why is Trump in such a commanding lead?
If you look at the nomination odds and compare them to the delegates each candidate has earned so far, the odds seem to favor Trump by an exaggerated margin. There are still a lot of contests to be held and a lot can happen from now, as the vast majority of delegates are still to be won. Trump leads the field with 332 delegates ahead of Cruz who has 230 delegates and Rubio with 113. A candidate must win 1,237 delegates to get he nomination outright without a contested convention, so there is still a lot to go, and Trump’s lead over Cruz is only 102 delegates.
Then why are pundits so certain Trump will get the nomination?
The answer is simple. His opponents are divided and their campaigns are sending the wrong signals. All four major contenders are saying they will stay in the race at least until March 15 when Florida (Rubio’s home state) and Ohio (where Kasich is governor) vote. Both are winner-take-all states that will give a big delegate boost and campaign momentum to their respective winners. This means the field will remain crowded for the next 16 states, which will help Trump increase his lead to a much higher margin by then.
After March 15 there are only 23 contests left, and all possible scenarios look grim for Trump’s opponents. Everything depends on what happens in Florida and Ohio according to Rubio’s and Kasich’s campaigns, but analyzing the possible outcomes shows the fallacy of their campaigns.
- Trump wins both Florida and Ohio.
This means he will get an additional 165 delegates on top of th delegates won in the other 14 states voting by March 15. His lead will be too high and his campaign will look unstoppable. Even if both Rubio and Kasich drop after the poor showings in their home states, there will be almost impossible for Cruz to recover the difference in the remaining states. Trump will most likely get the nomination.
- Rubio wins Florida and Trump wins Ohio
If Rubio manages to make a comeback in Florida and win the contest while Kasich loses his home state, the establishment will rally around Rubio and will call for Ted Cruz and Kasich to drop out of the race to have a two man contest between Trump and Rubio. The thing is, Cruz and Rubio will probably be tied in the second and third places with a very similar number of delegates, at a very long distance from the front-runner Trump. Cruz may not wish to abandon the race, and this would mean the field will remain crowded and Trump will win.
If Cruz bows to the pressure of the establishment and drops out of the race to consolidate the anti-Trump vote, his voters will probably be evenly divided between Trump and Rubio, which means Trump will still dominate the remaining states and will consolidate his advantage and win the nomination.
- Rubio wins Florida and Kasich wins Ohio
While Trump will get no delegates from the two states in this scenario, he will still be a winner because Kasich will not drop out of the race invoking campaign momentum. This will keep the moderate voters divided and we’ve already seen what a crowded field means. The primary will go on with four candidates and Trump will continue to dominate the majority of remaining states and win the nomination.
- Trump wins Florida and Kasich wins Ohio
In this scenario, the establishment will pressure Rubio to drop and will rally behind Kasich. This will be a futile attempt to unite the anti-Trump vote since Kasich will be way behind in the delegate count and even if Cruz drops out of the race, his voters will more likely go to Trump than to Kasich. In the end, Trump will have an easy time defeating Kasich and winning the nomination.
The four scenarios for Florida and Ohio analyzed here are the most likely outcomes, as Ted Cruz is well behind in the polls on those states, and he has little chances to win if all candidates are in the race. In all situations, Trump emerges as the winner, and this is why pundits consider him an almost certain bet.
The only way Trump can be defeated
While everything seems to favor a Trump nomination and Hillary win on the general elections, there is an alternative scenario that would change things dramatically.
The GOP could easily change the course of things if they would act in a rational manner instead of continuing their failed strategies. The only thing they need to do is to rally around Cruz now.
As Glenn Beck said earlier today, Rubio must drop out of the race and run for Vice President in a Cruz/Rubio ticket. But he has to do it now, not after March 15 when Trump’s lead will be insurmountable.
If Rubio will make a deal with Cruz to be his VP, he may end up being the Vice President of the United States. If he continues his campaign, he will end up with nothing, as Trump will be the GOP nominate and Hillary Clinton the President after the general elections.
If Rubio and his bakers would rally behind Cruz, the race will change dramatically and Trump will have a very hard time winning additional states. Cruz will have the highest chances to win the nomination, and the general election will be highly contested with Cruz in pole position.
This is a simple scenario that will give Republicans the best chance to win the White House. Unfortunately for them, this is a very unlikely scenario because Rubio’s and Kasich’s campaigns are out of touch with reality, or they just prefer Hillary Clinton over Ted Cruz.